The credit layer for agriculture
Fallow turns the season’s outcome into a portable Grade that travels with the operator. We don’t make the loans — we price the risk.
Under-modeled
$625B
U.S. farm sector debt outstanding, underwritten with no shared record of who repays.
USDA ERS · 2026 forecast
01 · The thesis
Agricultural lending was designed for a steadier climate, simpler supply chains, and slower information. None of those still hold.
01
Consumers have FICO. Small businesses have D&B and PayNet. U.S. farmers have no shared record that travels with them.
02
A drought-prone county and a tile-drained one carry the same rate. Capital can’t tell them apart, so it prices to the worse one — or walks away.
03
Every season ends in repaid, late, or not at all — ground truth generated on the ground each year. The gap isn’t missing data. It’s that no one captures or standardizes it.
share of farm loans requiring restructuring, Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024.
Kansas City Fed
Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings, 2025 vs 2024.
American Farm Bureau Federation
Risk is being deferred, not priced.
The system reads stress through default. Fallow prices at origination.
02 · The approach
We translate non-standard farm risk into a standard capital can underwrite — a portable Grade that travels with the operator. The model gets sharper every season it runs.
Capture
Season outcomes — repaid, late, or not at all — standardized at the operator level.
Grade
One portable record that travels with the operator and gets sharper every season.
Price
Risk priced per operator, not per county average. Fallow doesn’t make the loans.