01 · Pricing
Risk gets averaged, not understood.
A drought-prone county and a tile-drained one carry the same rate. Capital can't tell them apart, so it prices to the worse one — or walks away.
Stealth · 2026
Agriculture is mispriced at scale.
Fallow is building the underwriting infrastructure that lets capital price agriculture at the resolution the field actually has.
01 · The thesis
Why this hasn't
been priced.
Agricultural lending was designed for a steadier climate, simpler supply chains, and slower information. None of those still hold.
02 · Underwriting
The data exists. The translation doesn't.
Yield monitors, satellite, basis curves, FSA filings — all sit in different silos in different formats. Credit committees still read PDFs, not pixels.
03 · Capital
Capital flows around farms, not through them.
Private credit wants ag exposure but can't price it. Growers can produce the underlying performance but not in a format institutional capital can hold. Both sides leave money on the table.
$625B
U.S. farm sector debt outstanding (USDA ERS, 2026 forecast) — the largest under-modeled
asset class in private credit.
2×
share of farm loans requiring restructuring, Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024 (Kansas City Fed).
+46%
Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings, 2025 vs 2024 (American Farm Bureau Federation). The
system reads stress through default. We surface it earlier.
Risk is being deferred,
not priced.
02 · The approach
Fallow is a credit bureau
for agriculture.
The layer between operators and capital — translating field-level performance into a form the market can underwrite.
The model gets stronger as more underwriting flows through it.
Fallow operating thesis · 2026
